Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.018482 0.020937 0.023599 0.026702 0.030221 0.034088 0.038664
2025-08-03 0.014369 0.017686 0.021595 0.026544 0.032650 0.039947 0.049344
2025-08-10 0.012133 0.015805 0.020384 0.026520 0.034542 0.044696 0.058560
2025-08-17 0.010388 0.014172 0.019112 0.026048 0.035556 0.048172 0.066245
2025-08-24 0.009329 0.013247 0.018573 0.026357 0.037479 0.052855 0.075828
2025-08-31 0.008328 0.012256 0.017789 0.026171 0.038600 0.056425 0.084079
2025-09-07 0.007726 0.011749 0.017604 0.026773 0.040836 0.061700 0.095210
2025-09-14 0.006841 0.010719 0.016533 0.025918 0.040768 0.063492 0.101171
2025-09-21 0.006212 0.010009 0.015864 0.025588 0.041428 0.066386 0.109025
2025-09-28 0.005569 0.009210 0.014975 0.024806 0.041267 0.067919 0.114754
2025-10-05 0.005365 0.009102 0.015169 0.025787 0.044041 0.074393 0.129210
2025-10-12 0.005110 0.008880 0.015151 0.026396 0.046223 0.080034 0.142708
2025-10-19 0.004893 0.008711 0.015217 0.027175 0.048803 0.086635 0.158632
2025-10-26 0.004534 0.008261 0.014760 0.026995 0.049669 0.090316 0.169653
2025-11-02 0.004236 0.007893 0.014414 0.026971 0.050800 0.094535 0.182016
2025-11-09 0.003903 0.007428 0.013850 0.026491 0.051023 0.097081 0.191391
2025-11-16 0.003709 0.007208 0.013717 0.026805 0.052776 0.102626 0.207079
2025-11-23 0.003468 0.006875 0.013343 0.026616 0.053520 0.106272 0.219283
2025-11-30 0.003343 0.006760 0.013374 0.027228 0.055900 0.113319 0.239047
2025-12-07 0.003061 0.006305 0.012702 0.026359 0.055185 0.114068 0.245689
2025-12-14 0.002861 0.006001 0.012307 0.026023 0.055541 0.117021 0.257266
2025-12-21 0.002632 0.005617 0.011718 0.025228 0.054851 0.117719 0.263960
2025-12-28 0.002592 0.005632 0.011958 0.026225 0.058111 0.127097 0.290822